Scientists believe that the peak of solar activity expected in 2024 or 2025 will be much stronger than previously predicted. This is indicated by a greater number of Sunspots, as well as the appearance of so-called cannibalistic coronal explosions. It is quite common for the Earth to be hit by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that occurs after activity on the Sun.
A cannibalistic solar storm has hit Earth
But what scientists are less familiar with is what they call a "cannibalistic" ejection of energetic and highly magnetized gas, which is exactly what happened yesterday. Since it was formed from multiple solar storms and an unusual "dark eruption", scientists feared that the "cannibalistic" solar storm, or coronal explosion, would cause a weak geomagnetic storm when it hit Earth, according to "Live Science". Scientists have warned that there is a possibility of minor interruptions and power outages.
- These storms manifest as large disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field, potentially causing various effects of space weather - Sean Elvidge, associate professor of the space environment at the University of Birmingham, told the Daily Mail. It seems that the day of the collision with this "cannibal" also passed without major consequences.
What are cannibalistic storms, how do they arise and what do they herald?
CMEs are clouds of magnetized plasma and solar radiation that are periodically ejected into space. If they hit the Earth, they cause disturbances in the magnetic field, which can cause interruptions in radio communications.
So-called cannibalistic coronal explosions occur when the first coronal explosion is followed by another, faster one, which engulfs the first cloud and creates a huge cloud of plasma. Cannibalistic explosions are rare because they require consecutive coronal mass ejections that are perfectly aligned and travel at specific speeds. But there have been a few in the last few years
In November 2021, a cannibalistic CME slammed into Earth, triggering one of the first major geomagnetic storms of the current solar cycle. Two more CMEs hit our planet in 2022, the first in March and the second in August, and both produced powerful G3 storms. Cannibalistic CMEs become more likely during solar maximum, the chaotic peak of the sun's solar cycle that lasts roughly 11 years. During this time, the number of sunspots and solar flares increases rapidly as the Sun's magnetic field becomes increasingly unstable.
At the beginning of June, an unexpectedly large number of spots were recorded on the Sun. 163 of them were counted, which is the most in the last two decades. This suggests that the coming peak of solar activity expected in 2024 or 2025 will be much stronger than previously predicted. The previous ones were quite weak.
Internet apocalypse
These data, together with misinformation according to which NASA announced an internet apocalypse in 2025, have launched a series of conspiracy theories and speculations in the media and social networks about the imminent arrival of the internet apocalypse and a major reset, writes Index.hr.
To begin with, it is important to clarify what the internet apocalypse is. The term became popular after computer expert Sangita Abdu Jyoti, an assistant professor at the University of California, Irvine, used it in her 2021 scientific paper Solar Storms: Planning for an Internet Apocalypse, in which she presented a hypothetical scenario in which strong solar storms could cause Internet outages that could last for weeks, even after power is restored.
Abdu Djoti says in his study that the regional internet infrastructure is very robust because the geomagnetically induced currents typical of solar storms do not affect optical fibers since they are not made of metals that could induce current. However, the electronic repeaters used to amplify optical signals in long submarine cables are very sensitive to changes in magnetism, meaning that a strong solar storm could damage them and knock them out of action.
The Carrington Event
At the start of the study, she recalls the first recorded high-impact solar coronal mass ejection (CME) on Earth on September 1, 1859, which became known as the Carrington Event. This cataclysmic CME reached Earth in just 17 hours, causing damage and fires in the telegraph network and equipment, and several operators experienced electric shocks.
It caused major telegraph disruptions in North America and Europe. A recent study analyzing the risks a Carrington event would pose to the US power grid today found that 20 to 40 million people in the country could be without power for up to 2 years, with a total economic cost of $0.6 to $2.6 trillion.
But, Djoti points out that, as far as she and her colleagues are aware, there are no studies on the risks that such an event could represent for the Internet infrastructure. He reminds that in such a situation, not only submarine cables would be vulnerable, but also systems such as Starlink, whose satellites orbit about 550 km above the Earth. The damage to electronics and the loss of income from the loss of the Internet in such a situation could be enormous.
Forbes magazine in the text "Why America Should Suddenly Prepare For A Billion-Dollar 'Internet Apocalypse' Caused By The Sun" estimates that only the American economy could lose about 7.2 billion dollars a day due to the interruption of Internet connections. On a global scale, from the beginning of the incident to the repair of all faults and the restoration of the system to normal, the loss would eventually be counted in the trillions. The author of the Forbes article, science journalist Jamie Carter, wonders what about the 1.6% to 12% chance of a devastating solar superstorm actually happening.
"And have we – and our internet – prepared for such an event? As for the coronavirus pandemic, obviously not," he concludes and says that it would be worth working on it.
NASA did not announce the apocalypse of the Internet
This begs the question, what are the disputed speculations and conspiracy theories mentioned above in the text. The problem is that they are based on fabrications and ultimately, as often happens in such situations, result in conspiracy theories. First of all, it is not true that NASA warned that there will be an internet apocalypse in 2025. No such post exists.
Speculations, apart from the previously mentioned study from 2021, are also based on a more recent one from April which showed that a new solar maximum could arrive as early as 2024, earlier than predicted. It is quite common for the Earth to be hit by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that is formed after activity on the Sun. But what scientists are less familiar with is what they call a "cannibalistic" ejection of energetic and highly magnetized gas, which is exactly what happened yesterday.
Since it was formed from multiple solar storms and an unusual "dark eruption", scientists feared that the "cannibalistic" solar storm, or coronal explosion, would cause a weak geomagnetic storm when it hit Earth, according to "Live Science". Scientists have warned that there is a possibility of minor interruptions and power outages.
- These storms manifest as large disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field, potentially causing various effects of space weather - Sean Elvidge, associate professor of the space environment at the University of Birmingham, told the Daily Mail. It seems that the day of the collision with this "cannibal" also passed without major consequences.
Carrington happens once every 500 years
The fact is that storms like the one that happened 164 years ago can happen again at any time, which means that it is always good to follow the developments and be prepared. But experts estimate that such powerful events are expected once every 500 years. Moreover, accurately predicting a major solar storm for a long time is an almost impossible mission.
Namely, as the Sun approaches the peak of magnetic activity, the structures on its surface become more and more complicated, which makes them difficult to include in models.
Solar flares and CMSs are three-dimensional structures and interact with the Earth's magnetic field system, which is also a three-dimensional structure, in ways that are not yet fully understood, which means they are difficult to model.
By sciencev
