President Biden, aged 80, and former President Donald Trump, aged 77, are considered among the oldest major party front-runners in American history. Despite their demanding schedules, both men have demonstrated physical capability and have received passing reports from their physicians. Actuarial approaches suggest they have a higher probability of living through a second term if elected, thanks to their access to high-quality healthcare and other socioeconomic benefits.
Public opinion, however, does not fully align with these probabilities. Surveys show that many Americans express concerns about their age impacting their ability to serve effectively as president. The risk of illness and death increases steadily with age, and this is a significant factor contributing to public apprehension.
While experts caution that chronological age doesn’t necessarily predict overall health and well-being, fears about aging and cognitive decline persist among voters. Various mortality models have been consulted, taking into account specific circumstances of each candidate, but they consistently indicate a relatively low risk of death during a potential second term.
It’s worth noting that U.S. presidents and British royalty, historically, have lived longer than others in their generation due to the benefits of their social status. However, voters should consider other crucial factors, such as candidates’ policies and leadership style, rather than solely relying on probability models.
In conclusion, both Biden and Trump, while considered among the luckier ones due to their access to resources and healthcare, face concerns about their age and longevity from the American public. Age remains a critical factor, but it is not the sole determinant of their ability to govern effectively.